By 2028, Most Investment Banking VPs Will Be in Trouble

By 2028, the Vice President title will sit on a sharper knife-edge than ever.

You’ll either be seen as an indispensable future MD or as a very senior execution resource who has quietly stalled.

There will be less room in the middle.

This newsletter is a scorecard for the first group: what a top-quartile VP looks like in skills, mindset, and track record, ,and how to start building that profile now.

The VP Role is No Longer “Senior Associate Plus”

For years, many firms treated VPs as super-charged Associates: still deep in the weeds, just managing more complexity. That model is breaking.

By 2028, the VP is the project leader and translation layer between MDs, clients, and junior teams:

• Less time rebuilding models

• More time orchestrating people, decisions, and risk

As we’ve explored in recent IB Leaders Club issues on AI, sponsorship, and managing up, the industry is converging on the same conclusion:

Execution is no longer the differentiator. Judgment is.

Expectations are rising fast:

• AI and data literacy

• Sector and thematic depth

• Commercial instinct

• Early signs of origination

• Leadership that reduces friction, not adds to it

Firms are increasingly promoting to VP only when they see credible MD potential. At that level, flawless execution is table stakes. Leadership signal is what separates the field.

Dimension 1: Skills - The 2028 VP Capability Stack

Top-quartile VPs still have strong technical foundations. Their edge comes from how they integrate technical, execution, and commercial skills into one coherent operating system.

A. Technical & Analytical (Still Non-Negotiable)

You’re no longer judged on whether you can build every model cell from scratch.

You’re judged on whether the analytical engine of the team produces insight and quality under your direction.

• Advanced modelling & valuation: You can design, review, and challenge complex models quickly, spotting weak assumptions and structural flaws early.

• Data & AI literacy: You know how to use tools to accelerate research, comps, scenario analysis, and document review and, crucially, how to catch AI-generated errors before they reach clients.

As discussed in How AI Is Transforming Deal Origination, the VPs who thrive are not replaced by tools they supervise and elevate them.

A VP who insists on doing all the technical work personally is no longer seen as strong. They’re seen as a bottleneck.

B. Execution & Project Leadership

This is the core of the modern VP role: turning messy situations into controlled, high-quality outcomes.

• End-to-end ownership: You can run complex sell-side, buy-side, or financing processes from mandate to closing.

• Delegation & quality control: You give precise briefs, set clear standards, and ensure outputs are client-ready with minimal MD intervention.

This is the operational expression of what we described in Managing Up:
You reduce cognitive load for seniors and create clarity for juniors.

When you’re on a deal, leadership trusts that nothing will fall through the cracks and juniors don’t burn out in unnecessary chaos.

C. Commercial & Client-Facing Skills

Top-quartile VPs are increasingly evaluated front of house, not just back of house.

• Client presence: You lead parts of meetings, handle follow-ups, and turn vague conversations into concrete workplans.

• Commercial instinct: You understand pricing, structure, timing and argue for deals that will actually clear, not just look good on paper.

Ask yourself:

“If you left tomorrow, would the team miss your modelling or your ability to keep the client moving?”

Dimension 2: Mindset- How Top-Quartile VPs Think

Two VPs can look identical on paper. The difference is their internal operating system.

A. Owner, Not Employee

Top-quartile VPs think like mini-franchise owners.

They frame decisions around:

• Long-term client value

• Platform reputation

• Risk-adjusted outcomes

They proactively protect the franchise and the junior bench, even under pressure to “just get it done.”

This is exactly the mindset sponsors look for. As explored in What Sponsors Look For, senior leaders advocate for people who think beyond the task in front of them.

B. Growth & Adaptability

The industry is changing fast: technology, regulation, capital sources, and client expectations.

Top-quartile VPs lean into that change:

• Experimenting with new tools

• Expanding sector or product range

• Taking on messy, unfamiliar situations

By 2028, “I like things the way they were” is career-limiting.

Adaptability isn’t a personality trait anymore, it’s part of the promotion criteria.

C. People-First Leadership

The industry is increasingly explicit that sustainable performance depends on how leaders treat people.

Top-quartile VPs hold high standards and high care:

• They own their mistakes publicly

• Give credit visibly

• Build psychological safety without lowering the bar

Contrast this with the “busy but replaceable” VP always underwater, snapping at juniors, focused only on their own output. That profile is quietly screened out of the MD track.

Dimension 3: Track Record- Evidence You’re Already Top Quartile

At the VP level, potential is not enough. Committees look for patterns over 2–3+ years.

A. Deals & Revenue Footprint

Top-quartile VPs leave a clear imprint.

• Consistent roles on completed material transactions

• Early revenue contribution: ideas, relationships, or effort that led to mandates or fee expansion

This is the bridge between execution and sponsorship. Committees want evidence you’ve helped create revenue, not just process it.

B. Client & Internal Franchise

Top-quartile VPs are known quantities.

• Client pull: Senior clients who ask for you by name

• Internal pull: A clear niche where colleagues say, “We need them on this.”

External credibility plus internal gravity is one of the strongest predictors of MD potential.

C. People & Culture Impact

The industry increasingly rewards builders.

• Juniors who have grown meaningfully under your leadership

• Tangible contributions to training, recruiting, or culture

Put bluntly: If you disappeared tomorrow, your deals, clients, and people should all feel the gap.

A Practical Self Assessment for 2028

Step 1: Score Yourself (1–5)

Skills

• Technical / AI literacy

• Execution & project leadership

• Commercial & client presence

Mindset

• Owner vs employee

• Growth & adaptability

• People-first leadership

Track Record

• Deals & revenue footprint

• Client & internal franchise

• People & culture impact

Be brutally honest this is for you, not HR!

Step 2: Pick One 12–24 Month “Sprint Theme”

Don’t try to fix everything at once. Choose one dimension and move decisively.

• Commerciality: Sit in more client meetings, originate one idea per quarter, and explicitly track pipeline contribution.

• Franchise & people: Become the internal go-to in a niche and deliberately build 2–3 standout juniors whose success is clearly tied to your leadership.

By 2028, the VPs who stand out won’t be the ones who merely survived.

They’ll be the ones who can point to:

• a clear skill stack

• a differentiated mindset

• and a track record that already looks like a junior MD

Final Thoughts

The VP role is no longer a holding pattern. It’s a proving ground.

As we’ve seen across IB Leaders Club conversations on AI, sponsorship, and managing up, the future belongs to leaders who:

• think beyond execution

• reduce friction for others

• create momentum

• and build franchises, not just decks

If you’re willing, hit reply and share which dimension you’re most focused on this year skills, mindset, or track record.

Future IB Leaders Club issues will go deeper into the gaps that matter most on the path to MD.

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